July 1, 2008:  Robert J. Coen of  Magna lowered his 2008 US advertising spending forecast to 2.0% growth.-- down from his 3.7% forecast set in December 2007 and the 5.0% growth projected in June 2007.

Per the New York Times, Coen cites factors such as first-quarter declines in categories such as local classifieds (-24.9% from a year earlier) and local retail (-8.6%).

Coen’s forecast ad revenue for 2008 is now $285.1 billion, compared with his final estimate for 2007 of $279.6 billion. Some $193.1 billion of the 2008 forecast ad spend is for national advertising, up 4.2%; the remaining $92.0 billion is from local, which is expected to be down 2.4%:

As reported by the New York times (via Marketing Charts), Coen's final estimate for ad spending growth for 2007 is -0.7% -- a downward revision from 0.7%, he estimated in December 2007.

The negative growth in 2007 is the first since 2001.  Out of the past 70 years this is just the sixth year during which ad spend has declined, the others: 1938, 1942, 1961, 1991, 2001.